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Home > Adapting to Abrupt Climate Change
Although our understanding of the causes and consequences of relatively abrupt changes in climate is imperfect, it makes sense to develop practical strategies that could be used to reduce economic and ecological systems' vulnerabilities to change. In that spirit, it is worth investigating "no-regrets" policies that provide benefits whether an abrupt climate change ultimately occurs or not. By moving scientific and public-policy research in directions that enhance system adaptability, it might be possible to reduce vulnerability at little or no net cost.
For example, the phaseout of chloro-fluorocarbons over the past two decades, and their replacement with relatively benign gases having shorter atmospheric residence times, reduced nations' contributions to global warming while also diminishing the risks posed by ozone depletion.
No-regrets measures in anticipation of abrupt climate change could include low-cost steps to: slow climate change; improve climate forecasting; slow biodiversity loss; improve water, land, and air quality; render institutions more robust to major disruptions; and adopt technological innovations that increase the resiliency of market and ecological systems (see sidebar).
The potential value of such measures is not restricted to the United States. With growing globalization, adverse social and economic impacts are now more likely than ever to spill across national boundaries. It is especially important that the needs of poorer countries, which could be highly vulnerable to the effects of abrupt climate change, be given sufficient attention and support.
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Potential No-Regrets Strategies
The report highlights a few policy areas to explore in developing no-regrets options:
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Energy policies. Options to slow climate change, such as moving away from coal-burning toward other fuels, can also have benefits in reducing health or environmental effects of emissions.
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Ecological policies. In land-use and coastal planning, managers may be helped by information on the effects of nonlinear climate changes on ecosystems. Scientists and government organizations at various levels could collaborate to develop and implement regulations and policies that reduce environmental degradation of water, air, and biota.
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Forecasting of weather and weather-related events. The frequency and intensity of hurricanes and other storms could increase as a result of an abrupt climate change, having large societal impacts. Efforts to improve forecasting and alert capabilities can reduce the loss of life by facilitating evacuations.
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Institutions. Research should be conducted on improved institutions that will allow societies to withstand the greater risks associated with climate change, for example, water systems that better withstand drought, and insurance systems that hold up to increased demands for losses due to fires, floods, and storms.
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