This panel will address the question:
"What can be done to better understand climate change and its interactions with human and ecological systems?"
The panel will first provide a concise overview of past, present, and future climate change, including its causes and its impacts, then recommend steps to advance our current understanding, including new observations, research programs, next-generation models, and the physical and human assets needed to support these and other activities. The panel should consider both the natural climate system and the human activities responsible for driving climate change and altering the vulnerability of different regions, sectors, and populations as a single system; it should also consider the scientific advances needed to better understand the effectiveness of actions taken to limit the magnitude of future climate change and adapt to its impacts.
The following are sample sub-questions that illustrate the range of issues the panel will address:
- What are the primary causes and mechanisms of climate change, what and where have the most notable climate changes and climate change impacts been, and how significant are these changes in the context of natural climate variability and historical climate impacts?
- What climate changes and impacts are expected to occur under different scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, climate sensitivity, and vulnerability of human and natural systems? What irreversible impacts, abrupt changes, or other "surprises" could be in store?
- How well do we understand the processes that determine greenhouse gas emissions, the sensitivity of the climate system to external forcing, the impacts of climate change, and the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of human and natural systems? What can be done to improve our understanding of these processes?
- What can be done to increase the reliability, accuracy, and utility of predictions and projections of future climate and climate-related changes?
- What more do we need to know about how various interventions in human systems are likely to affect the activities that drive climate change and the ability of human systems to adapt to it?
The panel should also provide input to the Climate Change Study Committee on the following integrating questions:
- What short-term actions can be taken to better understand climate change and its interactions with human and ecological systems?
- What promising long-term strategies, investments, and opportunities could be pursued to advance the science of climate change?
- What are the major scientific and technological advances (e.g., new observations, improved models, research priorities, etc.) needed to extend our understanding of climate change and its interactions with other systems?
- What are the major impediments (e.g., practical, institutional, economic, ethical, intergenerational, etc.) to advancing the science of climate change, and what can be done to overcome these impediments?
- What can be done to advance the science of climate change at different levels (e.g., local, state, regional, national, and in collaboration with the international community) and in different sectors (e.g., nongovernmental organizations, the business community, the research and academic communities, individuals and households, etc.)?
The Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change will include approximately 12 members drawn from a range of communities including academia, business and industry, different levels of government, nongovernmental organizations, and the international community. The panel will include experts from a broad range of natural and social sciences relevant to understanding climate change, including its human drivers; physical and biogeochemical processes in the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and land surface; the consequences of climate change for ecological and human systems; and the possibilities for and effects of human responses to climate change. The panel will also include individuals familiar with the practical and technical aspects of developing, extending, and supporting scientific research; opportunities for international coordination and collaboration in climate-related research; and other relevant expertise.
