Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution: Workshop Agenda
October 21-22, 2015
500 5th Street, NW, Washington, DC
Inform the committee as they write their report on the science of attribution of specific extreme weather events to human-caused climate change and natural variability.
Specifically, the committee will:
- Provide an assessment of current scientific understanding and capabilities for attribution of specific extreme weather events to climate change.
- Provide guidance about the robustness of extreme event attribution science. The guidance should discriminate among different attribution approaches and different classes of extreme events, and it should consider various characteristics of the analysis (e.g., data coverage and quality, model performance, etc.).
- Identify research priorities for further development of the approaches.
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
1:00 P.M.: Welcoming remarks and introduction--David Titley, Pennsylvania State University (video)
1:30 P.M.: Framing of event attribution questions and risk-based perspective for decision-making--Alexis Hannart, CNRS (video)
- Observed climate change--Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, KNMI
- Coupled ocean/atmosphere climate models--David Karoly, University of Melbourne
- Large ensembles--Myles Allen, University of Oxford
- SSTs and sea ice--Judith Perlwitz, NOAA ESRL
- Circulation analogs--Pascal Yiou, CEA
- Building confidence--Leonard Smith, University of Oxford (PDF)
5:00 P.M.: General Discussion--Moderated by: John Walsh, University of Alaska, Fairbanks (video)
5:45 P.M.: Adjourn
Thursday, October 22, 2015
OPEN SESSION – Keck 100
9:30 A.M: Panel on Attribution of Specific Weather Phenomena--Moderated by: Phil Mote, Oregon State University (video)
- Extreme heat and cold events--Ken Kunkel, NOAA NCEI/North Carolina State University
- Drought events--Marty Hoerling, NOAA ESRL
- Wildfires--Eric Kasischke, NASA/University of Maryland
- Extreme rain events/flooding--Michael Wehner, LBL
- Extreme snow/freezing rain events--Jay Lawrimore, NOAA NCEI
- Hurricanes--Tom Knutson, NOAA GFDL
- Tornadoes--Jeff Trapp, University of Illinois
- Extreme sea level rise events--William Sweet, NOAA NOS
11:15 A.M.--Panel discussion continues (video)
12:15 P.M.--Working lunch
1:15 P.M.: Break out group session to identify opportunities and challenges on the following topics:
- Uncertainty quantification:
- assessing model quality
- uncertainty quantification given a reasonable model
- how can event attribution be evaluated
- Framing of event attribution questions (are we asking the right questions?) and how to describe and quantify a potential anthropogenic component to the meteorological drivers of an extreme event, given that natural variability is generally playing a dominant role.
- Timescale/operational event attribution (e.g., How do the timescale and spatial domain of an event impact our ability to attribute the event? On what timelines can event attribution studies be conducted? How does the timescale of an event affect the timeline on which attribution studies can be conducted?).
4:15 P.M.: Invited responses to the workshop discussions--Kathy Jacobs, University of Arizona (video)
5:00 P.M: Wrap up--David Titley, PSU (video)
5:30 P.M.: Adjourn